Manufacturing and Industrial: 2025 Outlook and Trends

Even if the appellate courts uphold the lower courts’ decisions, the president will maintain authority to impose tariffs, albeit in a more limited fashion. For example, following an investigation by the Commerce Department, the president is authorized to impose tariffs in accordance with section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, and sections 301 and 338 of the Trade Act of 1930. These are the bases on which current automotive, steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports are subject to heightened duties.

Tariffs are not going away anytime soon, but their scope and level may change significantly in the coming weeks.

Increased Focus on FCA Enforcement for Manufacturers Contributors: Todd Overman, Tris Sebesta

Recent enforcement activity under the False Claims Act (FCA) highlights the Trump administration's continued emphasis on domestic preference laws, notably the Buy American Act (BAA), Build America, Buy America Act (BABA), and the Trade Agreements Act (TAA). With substantial infrastructure funding pouring in from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), contractors can anticipate increased scrutiny and enforcement. During President Trump’s first term, "Buy America" policies took center stage, and these initiatives expanded further under President Biden. Now, in his second term, President Trump has doubled down on his "America First" approach, actively reinforcing domestic preference requirements in federal procurement. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has made clear its intent to use the FCA aggressively to root out procurement fraud. A clear example emerged in May 2025 when the DOJ announced a $300,000 civil settlement agreement with a Connecticut-based company. The firm had violated the BAA and TAA by selling foreign end products to several government procuring agencies. This case highlights the DOJ's readiness to enforce compliance not just in high-profile cases, but also in routine procurement transactions. On February 20, 2025, then-Deputy Assistant Attorney General for Commercial Litigation Michael Granston and current Director of the Fraud Section in the Civil Division Jamie Yavelberg highlighted this enforcement priority during their remarks at the Federal Bar Association’s Qui Tam Section Conference. Both officials also emphasized that customs fraud, including tariff evasion, would be a primary area of focus, leveraging the FCA as a key tool to address illegal foreign trade practices. Common fraudulent schemes include rerouting products through intermediary countries (re- exportation), mislabeling components to indicate a false country of origin, or undervaluing goods to minimize tariff liabilities. It is probable that these schemes will face rigorous investigation and enforcement. Penalties under the FCA have also risen. For penalties assessed after July 3, 2025, the minimum penalty per claim increased from $13,946 to $14,308, with the maximum penalty per claim rising from $27,894 to $28,619. These financial penalties, combined with potential treble damages and possible debarment from future federal contracts, underscore the serious consequences contractors and suppliers face for non-compliance. With settlements and judgments under the FCA exceeding $2.9 billion in fiscal year 2024 alone, contractors should proactively strengthen compliance programs, conduct thorough supply chain due diligence, and certify domestic content accurately.

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