6. The Slalom of Healthcare Policy under Trump 2.0 BY ANGELA HUMPHREYS
With President-Elect Trump’s inauguration set to take place later this month, many prognosticators are analyzing potential big-ticket healthcare policy items under a Trump administration 2.0. Given the short window for action before the 2026 election cycle, look for much of the policy change to happen through executive orders and administrative directives rather than large-scale legislation, with the wildcard being potential court challenges in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Loper Brigh t decision last year. 22-451 Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (06/28/2024) Healthcare policy under the new Trump administration is likely to focus not only on administrative changes but also on market disruptions and a mix of reforms targeting increased price transparency and broader healthcare system inefficiencies. MA plans in particular are likely to continue to see some revamping, with changes such as more zero- premium MA plans to stimulate enrollment growth, additional revisions to star ratings, and a focus on improving cost management. Changes to the Medicaid program also are likely, with potential changes to incentivize states to focus on areas such as mental health, chronic conditions, and women’s health. This likely would lead to shifts in the Medicaid program’s overall structure, with more emphasis on overall prevention rather than acute care episodes. Additional areas of potential focus include an evaluation of the current state of hospital consolidation, suspension of the minimum staffing mandates on nursing homes, an expansion of the Veteran’s Choice Program, and an acceleration of the adoption of AI in healthcare workforce modernization. And finally, some good news for PE investors – we expect the new Trump administration to view PE investment more favorably than the current Biden administration, resulting in a pullback from the recent scrutiny cast on PE at the federal level, including the tri-agency request for information on the negative impacts of PE investment issued in 2024 by the Department of Justice (DOJ), Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and HHS. More thoughts can be found in our 2024 alert here. For an in-depth discussion with policy expert, Paul Keckley, on what to expect during the new Trump administration, please visit our webinar replay here. 7. Fewer Moguls in Antitrust Enforcement for PE Deals in Healthcare BY MICHAEL DASHEFSKY, LUKE SMITH & PATRICK ZINCK The incoming Trump administration is expected to bring a shift in antitrust enforcement that may ease certain challenges and present fewer moguls than PE firms have faced under the current regulatory environment. President-Elect Trump has named Andrew Ferguson to lead the FTC and Gail Slater to lead the DOJ Antitrust Division. Both appear to hold more traditional antitrust views than the current leaders of those agencies, Lina Khan (FTC) and Jonathan Kanter (DOJ). As discussed below, we expect the agencies’ approach to antitrust enforcement will change positively for PE firms in several respects, though some of the changes made by the current administration will persist:
Revision of the 2023 Merger Guidelines
The 2023 Merger Guidelines, which were implemented without Republican commissioner votes and expanded the scope of mergers deemed harmful to competition, are likely to undergo significant revisions. Specifically, we anticipate rollbacks to several provisions: • Structural Presumptions. The 2023 Merger Guidelines impose a presumption that any deal creating a company with a combined market share of 30% or more is illegal, even if one party contributes only 1–2% of that share. This threshold is likely to be increased—or eliminated entirely.
5 HEALTHCARE PRIVATE EQUITY: 2025 OUTLOOK & TRENDS IN M&A |
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